Get to the Point

By Jimmy Harris

It seems like the books are overloading bettors with an insane amount of football props and futures at this time of year. Trying to figure out which props and futures hold true value, and which are worth the equivalent of a bag of sand, can be tricky if you don't know what to look for.

One wager that almost always pays off for smart bettors is NFL win total betting. However, you don't want to simply dive right in and bet on every team's total.

What you should be looking for are teams with a total set at 7.5. It's pretty easy to see why. If a team is going to finish the season with a .500 record or better, they're obviously going to go OVER that total. And, if a team's going to finish worse than .500 they're going to go UNDER that total.

Right now over at online sportsbook , there are eight teams that have been given win totals of 7.5 - Arizona, Buffalo, Carolina, Cincinnati, Denver, Houston, the Jets, and Washington. Selecting three or four of them to finish above or below .500 shouldn't be too hard.

I'll be betting on Arizona, Carolina, Washington, and the Jets. It would likely help if I told you whether I think they're going to go OVER or UNDER as well, so here goes:

For Arizona I'll take the OVER. The Cardinals have a pretty easy schedule this season, and all of the teams they're facing posted a combined .465 winning percentage last year.

The Cards should pick up wins against Miami, the Jets, and Buffalo, and get a pair of wins against both the Rams and 49ers this season. That comes out to seven easy wins. Tack on one more victory and there's your eight. The Cardinals, who have been coming of age for what seems like a decade, may finally do it this year.

For the Panthers I'll also be taking the OVER. Carolina only won seven games last season, but they do have an easier schedule at .465 this year. That includes what should be sure wins over Chicago, Arizona, and Oakland, and two versus Atlanta.

That's five easy wins, and they should be able to pull off three or four more as long as Jake Delhomme stays healthy and Julius Peppers wakes up.

For the Jets I'm taking the UNDER. Believe it or not the Jets also have a pretty easy schedule at .457, but I'll still take the UNDER considering they only won four games last season. Look at just some of the teams the Jets have to face - Seattle, Denver, Tennessee, San Diego, and of course New England twice.

If they lose all of those games they'll have to win eight of their 12 remaining games to get OVER their total. That won't happen.

Finally, I'll take Washington to go UNDER as well. The Redskins may have taken some big steps last season to win nine games, but a tough schedule of .523 will knock them back this year.

The 'Skins have it tough enough having to face Dallas, Philadelphia, and the Giants twice each, but they also get the Saints, the Browns, the Steelers, and the Seahawks. That's 10 tough games right there.

Sorry Washington fans, you're in for a rough season. Betting on the number of wins an NFL  team will achieve on the year sounds like a tough handicapping challenge, but there are many bettors out there who profit from NFL win total betting every year.

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